Here are all the NHL goalies that have played this 2009-2010 NHL season by the NHL trade deadline (through March 2nd) from highest WAA (Wins Above Average) to lowest WAA. I define each of the statistics after the table.
| Player | Team | WAA | SOG | GA | GAA | Saves | Save Percent |
| Tomas Vokoun | FLA | 5.1905 | 1717 | 119 | 2.36 | 1598 | 0.9307 |
| Ryan Miller | BUF | 4.5815 | 1597 | 111 | 2.16 | 1486 | 0.9305 |
| Evgeni Nabokov | SJS | 4.0278 | 1674 | 123 | 2.29 | 1551 | 0.9265 |
| Miikka Kiprusoff | CGY | 3.2828 | 1565 | 118 | 2.18 | 1447 | 0.9246 |
| Jimmy Howard | DET | 3.2483 | 1350 | 99 | 2.28 | 1251 | 0.9267 |
| Craig Anderson | COL | 3.0578 | 1709 | 131 | 2.43 | 1578 | 0.9233 |
| Henrik Lundqvist | NYR | 2.0999 | 1583 | 126 | 2.38 | 1457 | 0.9204 |
| Tuukka Rask | BOS | 1.8668 | 829 | 61 | 2.15 | 768 | 0.9264 |
| Jaroslav Halak | MTL | 1.7284 | 966 | 74 | 2.56 | 892 | 0.9234 |
| Jonas Hiller | ANA | 1.7209 | 1468 | 119 | 2.70 | 1349 | 0.9189 |
| Roberto Luongo | VAN | 1.6987 | 1449 | 117 | 2.35 | 1332 | 0.9193 |
| Ilya Bryzgalov | PHX | 1.5719 | 1544 | 127 | 2.37 | 1417 | 0.9177 |
| Ty Conklin | STL | 0.8810 | 595 | 47 | 2.61 | 548 | 0.9210 |
| Johan Hedberg | ATL | 0.7947 | 920 | 76 | 2.54 | 844 | 0.9174 |
| Mike Brodeur | OTT | 0.7326 | 87 | 3 | 1.00 | 84 | 0.9655 |
| Justin Peters | CAR | 0.6541 | 93 | 4 | 1.34 | 89 | 0.9570 |
| Jason LaBarbera | PHX | 0.6433 | 331 | 25 | 2.23 | 306 | 0.9245 |
| Martin Brodeur | NJD | 0.6194 | 1544 | 133 | 2.33 | 1411 | 0.9139 |
| Tim Thomas | BOS | 0.5548 | 999 | 85 | 2.52 | 914 | 0.9149 |
| Peter Budaj | COL | 0.5286 | 252 | 19 | 2.21 | 233 | 0.9246 |
| Anton Khudobin | MIN | 0.5004 | 48 | 1 | 0.87 | 47 | 0.9792 |
| Yann Danis | NJD | 0.4639 | 146 | 10 | 1.85 | 136 | 0.9315 |
| Antero Niittymaki | TBL | 0.4060 | 1012 | 87 | 2.66 | 925 | 0.9140 |
| Semyon Varlamov | WSH | 0.3385 | 477 | 40 | 2.44 | 437 | 0.9161 |
| Marty Turco | DAL | 0.3282 | 1329 | 116 | 2.68 | 1213 | 0.9127 |
| Chris Mason | STL | 0.3267 | 1323 | 115 | 2.52 | 1208 | 0.9131 |
| Thomas Greiss | SJS | 0.3095 | 304 | 25 | 2.47 | 279 | 0.9178 |
| Cam Ward | CAR | 0.3013 | 1220 | 106 | 2.74 | 1114 | 0.9131 |
| Michal Neuvirth | WSH | 0.1861 | 464 | 40 | 2.75 | 424 | 0.9138 |
| Dan Ellis | NSH | 0.1812 | 734 | 64 | 2.59 | 670 | 0.9128 |
| Chad Johnson | NYR | 0.1583 | 135 | 11 | 2.35 | 124 | 0.9185 |
| Brent Johnson | PIT | 0.1131 | 458 | 40 | 2.69 | 418 | 0.9127 |
| Carey Price | MTL | 0.1042 | 1124 | 99 | 2.76 | 1025 | 0.9119 |
| Cory Schneider | VAN | 0.0328 | 59 | 5 | 3.80 | 54 | 0.9153 |
| Alexander Pechurski | PIT | 0.0233 | 13 | 1 | 1.67 | 12 | 0.9231 |
| Andrew Raycroft | VAN | -0.0179 | 291 | 26 | 2.37 | 265 | 0.9107 |
| Matt Zaba | NYR | -0.0898 | 16 | 2 | 3.53 | 14 | 0.8750 |
| Jhonas Enroth | BUF | -0.1107 | 37 | 4 | 4.14 | 33 | 0.8919 |
| Antti Niemi | CHI | -0.1169 | 542 | 49 | 2.26 | 493 | 0.9096 |
| Nikolai Khabibulin | EDM | -0.2227 | 602 | 55 | 3.03 | 547 | 0.9086 |
| Dustin Tokarski | TBL | -0.2428 | 16 | 3 | 4.09 | 13 | 0.8125 |
| Rick Dipietro | NYI | -0.3534 | 201 | 20 | 2.60 | 181 | 0.9005 |
| Michael Leighton | PHI, CAR | -0.3633 | 693 | 64 | 2.69 | 629 | 0.9076 |
| Wade Dubielewicz | MIN | -0.3703 | 18 | 4 | 4.14 | 14 | 0.7778 |
| Alexander Salak | FLA | -0.3788 | 40 | 6 | 5.37 | 34 | 0.8500 |
| Josh Harding | MIN | -0.4155 | 421 | 40 | 2.79 | 381 | 0.9050 |
| Dwayne Roloson | NYI | -0.4462 | 1206 | 110 | 2.86 | 1096 | 0.9088 |
| Joey MacDonald | TOR | -0.4697 | 157 | 17 | 3.20 | 140 | 0.8917 |
| Jonathan Quick | LAK | -0.5668 | 1532 | 140 | 2.50 | 1392 | 0.9086 |
| John Curry | PIT | -0.5795 | 14 | 5 | 12.50 | 9 | 0.6429 |
| Erik Ersberg | LAK | -0.6855 | 175 | 20 | 2.99 | 155 | 0.8857 |
| Manny Legace | CAR | -0.7105 | 443 | 44 | 2.94 | 399 | 0.9007 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury | PIT | -0.7150 | 1364 | 126 | 2.65 | 1238 | 0.9076 |
| Brian Elliott | OTT | -0.7252 | 1069 | 99 | 2.65 | 970 | 0.9074 |
| Patrick Lalime | BUF | -0.7259 | 287 | 30 | 3.20 | 257 | 0.8955 |
| Ray Emery | PHI | -0.7727 | 783 | 74 | 2.64 | 709 | 0.9055 |
| Jose Theodore | WSH | -0.8268 | 993 | 93 | 2.94 | 900 | 0.9063 |
| Jean-Sebastien Giguere | TOR, ANA | -0.8319 | 729 | 70 | 2.99 | 659 | 0.9040 |
| Curtis McElhinney | CGY | -0.9568 | 235 | 27 | 3.23 | 208 | 0.8851 |
| Brian Boucher | PHI | -0.9832 | 414 | 43 | 2.84 | 371 | 0.8961 |
| Martin Biron | NYI | -1.1034 | 577 | 58 | 3.24 | 519 | 0.8995 |
| Steve Valiquette | NYR | -1.1726 | 128 | 19 | 3.74 | 109 | 0.8516 |
| Mathieu Garon | CBJ | -1.2007 | 683 | 68 | 2.90 | 615 | 0.9004 |
| Scott Clemmensen | FLA | -1.2471 | 361 | 40 | 3.58 | 321 | 0.8892 |
| Mike Smith | TBL | -1.3017 | 898 | 88 | 2.99 | 810 | 0.9020 |
| Cristobal Huet | CHI | -1.4032 | 968 | 95 | 2.31 | 873 | 0.9019 |
| Alex Auld | DAL | -1.4973 | 558 | 59 | 3.00 | 499 | 0.8943 |
| Ondrej Pavelec | ATL | -1.6105 | 1111 | 109 | 3.45 | 1002 | 0.9019 |
| Chris Osgood | DET | -1.6485 | 524 | 57 | 2.94 | 467 | 0.8912 |
| Pekka Rinne | NSH | -1.7225 | 1074 | 106 | 2.81 | 968 | 0.9013 |
| Jonas Gustavsson | TOR | -1.7813 | 862 | 88 | 3.07 | 774 | 0.8979 |
| Devan Dubnyk | EDM | -1.9510 | 251 | 35 | 4.17 | 216 | 0.8606 |
| Niklas Backstrom | MIN | -1.9999 | 1247 | 123 | 2.74 | 1124 | 0.9014 |
| Pascal Leclaire | OTT | -2.1079 | 670 | 73 | 3.02 | 597 | 0.8910 |
| Jeff Deslauriers | EDM | -2.1838 | 1142 | 115 | 3.21 | 1027 | 0.8993 |
| Steve Mason | CBJ | -2.7515 | 1239 | 128 | 3.10 | 1111 | 0.8967 |
| Vesa Toskala | TOR | -3.8991 | 676 | 85 | 3.66 | 591 | 0.8743 |
Where SOG = shots on goal; GA = Goals Against; GAA = Goals Against Average; Saves is well the number of shots on goal that were stopped by the goalie; and Save Percent = Saves/SOG.
WAA is our measure of NHL goalie productivity is based on the absolute value (since a goal against has a negative effect on team wins) of the marginal value of a goal against divided by two (since each win is worth two standings points) times the number of shots on goal that goalie faces times the difference in the save percentage of the goalie and the average save percentage of all goalies for that season (or in this case up to the trading deadline).
5 comments:
Whoa. Niklas Backstrom is that far down on the list? Does this mean Josh Harding should get more starts for the Wild?
hi Stacey,
Why not use replacement level for these goaltenders? Mike Brodeur can't be more valuable than Martin Brodeur.
Here's a very simple model I proposed:
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=298
Jeff,
One of the main findings of our research is that goalie performance is highly variable, and we wonder why teams are paying so much for such variability. That said, from the model, I would play Harding more than Backstrom, although both are having poor years.
Gabriel,
I like that you have adjusted for 5-on-5 vs. 4-on-5, where our model does not. That said one of the things that I do not like is arbitrary picking a cutoff, as opposed to one that is based on actual performance. Hence the model compares each goalie to the league average save percentage and then calculates their performance based on the coefficient from the regression on standings points and goals for and goals against to get the value of keeping a goal out of the net on the team's standings points to make the playoffs.
Mike Brodeur has only played 3 games, but has played them excellently. His performance in playing those 3 games will likely not continue, and his productivity will change with more playing time. But in terms of a GAA of 1.00 and a save percentage of 0.9655, that is better than Brodeur's numbers through 59 games this year, according to our model.
Stacey,
Being "league average" is very valuable. Martin Brodeur has played 58 games and has been worth perhaps 4 wins to his team this season. Mike Brodeur had three wonderful games. He contributed 1 win to his team relative to a replacement goalie.
Replacement level is not some arbitrary line. It is the level of performance available for the league-minimum salary. This is not a new concept; using the league average as the baseline caused you to come up with the wrong result.
Stacey,
Is there any way to read your article, without purchasing it for $25?
I am a die-hard hockey fan, and I've recently become addicted to learning about economics. I just finished with some economics classes, post-BA.
Unfortunately, I am not an institution and I can't afford the $25, but I would LOVE to read about your analysis! The goalie position is my favorite to analyze.
If you know of a more affordable way for me to view your study, please contact me!
Cordially,
Jeremiah
You can email me at:
miahs_world@hotmail.com
Thanks again!
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