Wednesday, April 14, 2010

2009-2010 NHL Goalie Ranking

In April 2010, the Journal of Sports Economics published a paper written by Dave Berri and myself that focused on the evaluation of NHL goalies - abstract. The paper makes the claim that there is not much difference between a perceived "elite" NHL goalies and an average NHL goalie. Yet, GM's pay "elite" NHL goalies much more than they pay an average NHL goalie. So using the model in the paper - and assuming that the absolute value of the marginal impact of goal against on one standing point is that same as during the time period used in the paper. Here is the press release.

Our metric we use to evaluate NHL goalie performance is the number of wins the goalie produces above the league average. In order to calculate this, we first calculate for the league the average save percentage - which is the total number of saves divided by the total number of shots against during that time period, which is the entire 2009-2010 season. Second we subtract this league average save percentage from each NHL goalies actual save percentage for the 2009-2010 season, which I call the NHL goalies save percentage difference. Third, we multiply the NHL goalies save percentage difference by the number of shots the goalie faced during the season, and finally multiply that number by the absolute value of the marginal impact of a goal against adjusting for wins. We come up with the following numbers below.

Player Team WAA
Sv%
Ryan Miller BUF 5.5764
0.929
Tomas Vokoun FLA 4.2642
0.925
Tuukka Rask BOS 3.7539
0.931
Jimmy Howard DET 3.5570
0.924
Evgeni Nabokov SJS 3.4498
0.922
Henrik Lundqvist NYR 3.1051
0.921
Ilya Bryzgalov PHX 2.7763
0.92
Jaroslav Halak MTL 2.7732
0.924
Miikka Kiprusoff CGY 2.7093
0.92
Jonas Hiller ANA 2.0110
0.918
Craig Anderson COL 1.8717
0.917
Martin Brodeur NJD 1.5140
0.916
Ty Conklin STL 1.2015
0.921
Jason LaBarbera PHX 1.1918
0.928
Cam Ward CAR 0.9287
0.916
Johan Hedberg ATL 0.8067
0.915
Mike Brodeur OTT 0.7279
0.966
Jonathan Bernier LAK 0.6695
0.957
Tim Thomas BOS 0.6694
0.915
Anton Khudobin MIN 0.5026
0.979
Roberto Luongo VAN 0.4503
0.913
Chris Mason STL 0.4247
0.913
Marty Turco DAL 0.3721
0.913
Yann Danis NJD 0.3651
0.923
Peter Budaj COL 0.3470
0.917
Carey Price MTL 0.2130
0.912
Michal Neuvirth WSH 0.1806
0.914
Antti Niemi CHI 0.1623
0.912
Chad Johnson NYR 0.1509
0.919
Thomas Greiss SJS 0.0622
0.912
Scott Clemmensen FLA 0.0420
0.912
Cory Schneider VAN 0.0363
0.915
Alexander Pechurski PIT 0.0237
0.923
Johan Backlund PHI 0.0200
0.917
Corey Crawford CHI 0.0163
0.914
Kari Lehtonen DAL 0.0086
0.911
Andrew Raycroft VAN -0.0210
0.911
Pekka Rinne NSH -0.0410
0.911
Matt Zaba NYR -0.0895
0.875
Jeremy Duchesne PHI -0.0995
0.75
Jhonas Enroth BUF -0.1106
0.892
Jose Theodore WSH -0.1598
0.911
Erik Ersberg LAK -0.1908
0.906
Semyon Varlamov WSH -0.1991
0.909
Dustin Tokarski TBL -0.2437
0.813
Nikolai Khabibulin EDM -0.2443
0.909
Justin Peters CAR -0.2492
0.905
Matt Climie DAL -0.2511
0.868
Patrick Lalime BUF -0.2573
0.907
Dan Ellis NSH -0.2709
0.909
Wade Dubielewicz MIN -0.3059
0.853
Rick Dipietro NYI -0.3339
0.9
Alexander Salak FLA -0.3780
0.85
Manny Legace CAR -0.4466
0.907
Brent Johnson PIT -0.4622
0.906
Joey MacDonald TOR -0.4734
0.892
Brian Elliott OTT -0.5625
0.909
John Curry PIT -0.5796
0.643
Antero Niittymaki TBL -0.5925
0.909
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ANA, TOR -0.6969
0.907
Ray Emery PHI -0.6977
0.905
Curtis McElhinney CGY, ANA -0.7085
0.902
Josh Harding MIN -0.7092
0.905
Michael Leighton CAR, PHI -0.8068
0.905
Mathieu Garon CBJ -1.0594
0.903
Ondrej Pavelec ATL -1.0714
0.906
Dwayne Roloson NYI -1.0832
0.907
Steve Valiquette NYR -1.1787
0.852
Jonathan Quick LAK -1.3905
0.907
Brian Boucher PHI -1.4452
0.899
Alex Auld DAL, NYR -1.5229
0.895
Jonas Gustavsson TOR -1.5908
0.902
Marc-Andre Fleury PIT -1.6609
0.905
Devan Dubnyk EDM -1.9471
0.889
Martin Biron NYI -1.9711
0.896
Niklas Backstrom MIN -2.0345
0.903
Chris Osgood DET -2.0392
0.888
Mike Smith TBL -2.1019
0.9
Steve Mason CBJ -2.5182
0.901
Jeff Deslauriers EDM -2.5186
0.901
Cristobal Huet CHI -2.7614
0.895
Pascal Leclaire OTT -3.0943
0.887
Vesa Toskala TOR, CGY -3.7649
0.88

2 comments:

sturgeom said...

I think your next blog entry should be on the subject of peak oil? What is your position on this frightening topic?
I do believe alternative can be found, but will they be found quick enough to avoid economic destruction??

sturgeom said...

I think you should do your next blog entry on the subject of peak oil.
What is your position on this debatable topic?
Do you think alternatives can be developed quick enough to replace oil, or will economic collapse occur before substitutes come on board?